Mobile vs Premium · Recognizing Patterns Overview Part I · The Framework Part II · Premium Storefronts Part III · Mobile & Synthesis
Part II · Premium Storefronts

Premium StorefrontsSteam, Epic, PlayStation, Xbox.

The commission wars, the revenue concentration problem, and the comparison traps that make every cross-storefront chart at least partly wrong.

Series Mobile vs Premium
Published August 2026
Sources Alinea · GDCo · Gamalytic · Microsoft 10-K · Sony IR

Steam

The dominant platform, and the platform nobody can agree on the size of.
$17.7B
2025 revenue (Alinea Analytics)
$16.9B
2025 revenue (GameDiscoverCo)
79%
Share from back-catalogue, H1 2026
30%→20%
Royalty cut, tiered by lifetime revenue

Market Size: Five Rulers, Not One

No two analytics firms agree on Steam's exact revenue, and the disagreement is larger than most reporting acknowledges. Alinea Analytics puts full-year 2025 at $17.7 billion and 2024 at $15.4 billion (+15% YoY). GameDiscoverCo puts 2025 at $16.9 billion and 2024 at $10.8 billion (+57% YoY): a $4.6 billion gap on the same completed year, unreconciled by either firm. High confidence Third-party estimate

A 57% single-year increase on a mature platform is more consistent with a change in measurement scope than with market growth of that size. Neither firm has published a restatement explaining the shift. The gap should be read as evidence that the two series are not measuring the same thing, not as evidence that one of them is wrong.

A third firm, Gamalytic, measures new-release-only revenue and found just $4.7 billion generated by 2025's new games specifically, versus an estimated $10B+ from back catalogue. Video Game Insights measures paid game sales excluding microtransactions and forecast 2024 at $8.8 billion. "Steam revenue" describes at least five different measurements depending on which firm and which scope is being cited. Sensor Tower is the fifth, putting Steam at $11.7 billion in its cross-platform gaming comparison; that figure and the reason it runs low are covered in Part III.

Firm2025 figureScope
Alinea Analytics$17.7BPlatform-wide: paid + F2P + in-game, new + back catalogue
GameDiscoverCo$16.9BPlatform-wide, split $1.95B Valve titles / $14.98B third-party
Gamalytic$4.7BNew 2025 releases only, back catalogue excluded
Video Game Insights$8.8B (2024 fcst.)Paid game sales only, microtransactions excluded
Sensor Tower$11.7BCross-platform gaming comparison; appears to undercount Steam relative to PC-specialist firms

Five rulers: what each firm counted when it said "Steam revenue"

2025 Steam revenue, by firm

These five bars do not represent five estimates of one number; they represent five different questions, and the scope listed beneath each firm's name is the question that firm chose to answer. All figures cover full-year 2025 unless otherwise noted. Sensor Tower's figure comes from its cross-platform gaming comparison and appears to undercount Steam relative to firms that specialize in PC storefront tracking.

Commission Structure

Valve charges a standard 30% cut on the first $10 million a game earns, dropping to 25% between $10M–$50M, and 20% above $50M lifetime. The tiers apply by revenue tranche, not by title, so a game that crossed $50M still paid 30% on its first $10M and 25% on the next $40M. The blended effective payout rate across all non-Valve games in 2025 was approximately 76%, meaning Valve's average effective cut fell closer to 24% overall; but that average is pulled down almost entirely by a small number of top-earning titles.

Games grossing over $50 million lifetime accounted for $7.74 billion of the $14.98 billion in third-party revenue. Valve tiers by revenue tranche rather than by title, so every game that crossed $50 million still paid 30% on its first $10 million. About $3.5 billion of third-party revenue sat in that 30% tranche, generating roughly $1.05 billion of Valve's $3.54 billion total royalty for the year. The reduced rates apply to a small number of titles, and the blended 24% figure describes almost no individual developer's experience. Directional Third-party estimate (GDCo tier analysis)

Valve's 2025 royalty, by revenue tranche

Royalty collected

Valve collected a total platform royalty of $3.54 billion on $14.98 billion of third-party revenue in 2025, which is the arithmetic behind the widely cited 24% blended rate. The 30% tranche applies to the first $10 million of every game's lifetime revenue, not to a separate pool of small games, and it generated $1.05 billion of that total royalty. This figure is sourced to GameDiscoverCo's tier analysis.

The Concentration Floor

Gamalytic's October 2025 read on that year's releases, taken with roughly 12,700 titles logged and the year still running: median gross revenue $249, the second-lowest since 2020; 66% of games earned under $1,000; 40% never recouped the $100 Steam Direct submission fee; 47.4% sold fewer than 100 copies; the bottom 30% averaged just $37. Directional Third-party estimate (Gamalytic)

These are mid-year figures rather than a year-end position. Gamalytic's later reporting put the 2025 median closer to $318 across a larger release count, which is the direction a partial-year median moves as the tail fills in.

Back catalogue has climbed from 71% to 79% of Steam revenue between 2024 and H1 2026. The platform grows and the share reaching new games shrinks at the same time; both true, and only one makes the headline.
Gamalytic is open that its methodology is estimation, not Valve data, with individual-game estimates mostly landing inside a 30% to 50% margin of error. At the bottom of the distribution the margin is widest, because tiny games leave the least signal.

Epic Games Store

The developer-friendly challenger: leaner commission, a fraction of the scale.
14:1
Steam vs Epic, total platform revenue
37:1
Steam vs Epic, third-party revenue only
12%
Flat commission rate
$400M
2025 third-party revenue

Commission Structure

Epic charges a flat 12% commission, with 0% on a developer's first $1 million in revenue per product per year (introduced June 2025): a sharp contrast to Steam's 30% base rate. High confidence Company announcement

Market Size: Why "14 to 1" Understates the Gap

Epic Games Store topped $1.16 billion in total player spending in 2025, with third-party game revenue reaching $400 million, up 57% year-over-year. The store reported 78 million monthly active users, over 317 million total users, and 662 million free game downloads through its weekly free-games program. High confidence Company announcement

The commonly quoted "14 to 1" gap versus Steam compares Steam's $16.9 billion platform total (which includes Valve's own Counter-Strike 2 and Dota 2) against Epic's $1.16 billion (which includes Fortnite); both totals inflated by their owner's own hit game. Comparing third-party revenue only, the ratio widens to 37 to 1 ($14.98B vs $400M), which is the number that actually matters to an independent developer deciding where to launch.

Epic's $400M third-party figure explicitly excludes titles that self-process payments (EA Sports FC 26, Marvel Rivals, Valorant, and Grand Theft Auto V), meaning even the 37:1 gap likely understates Epic's true shortfall relative to Steam's fully-inclusive total.

Discoverability Mechanics

Epic relies heavily on its weekly free-game giveaway program to drive engagement and cross-promote paid titles, alongside curated front-page placements rather than an algorithmic wishlist system. Without Steam's scale of user-generated reviews and wishlist signals, discoverability leans more on Epic's own curation and giveaway-driven traffic spikes.

PlayStation Network

Console economics measured in a different currency than storefront revenue.
¥4.69T
FY2025 Game & Network Services revenue
~$29.8B
Dollar-equivalent, corporate segment total · ¥157 JPY/USD, May 2026
49%
Digital software & add-on content share
95.3M
PS5 lifetime hardware units sold (as of June 30, 2026)

Market Size: The Comparison Trap

Sony's Game & Network Services (G&NS) segment posted record revenue of ¥4.6857 trillion in FY2025 with operating profit of ¥463.3 billion. Digital software and add-on content together represent roughly 49% of total gaming segment revenue. PS5 lifetime hardware sales reached 95.3 million units as of June 30, 2026, the figure disclosed alongside Sony's FY2026 Q1 earnings. High confidence Company filing

Dollar figures above convert at approximately ¥157 to the dollar, the rate prevailing at the time of the FY2025 earnings release (May 2026). Recomputing at today's rate will produce a different number; the yen figure is the stable one.

As with revenue, hardware-unit figures are a moving target: a lifetime-sales number is only valid as of the date of the disclosure it came from, and any cross-platform comparison of install bases should carry the same date discipline this report applies to revenue snapshots.

Sony's ¥4.6857T is corporate segment revenue (bundling hardware, subscriptions, first-party publishing, and network services) not a like-for-like figure against Steam's player-spending total ($16.9–17.7B). The genuinely comparable figure is what Valve itself keeps after cuts, estimated by Alinea at just over $4 billion in 2025 Directional Third-party estimate. "Consoles are bigger than Steam" usually compares the wrong two columns of the ledger.

Xbox

A headline figure that was already out of date by the time it circulated.
$21.79B
FY2026 content & services revenue
-7%
YoY revenue decline, FY2026
-29%
Hardware revenue decline, FY2026
$5B
Game Pass annual revenue (FY2025)

Market Size: Revision in Real Time

Microsoft's Xbox content and services revenue reached $23.5 billion in FY2025, with Game Pass alone generating nearly $5 billion annually: roughly 21–22% of total Xbox content revenue, confirming Game Pass as a major and profitable pillar rather than a loss-leading subscription. High confidence Company filing

That FY2025 figure is already dated in most decks still circulating it: Microsoft's FY2026 (closed June 2026) showed Xbox revenue falling 7% to approximately $21.79 billion, driven by a 29% drop in hardware revenue and softer content and services growth. High confidence Company filing

Xbox's headline revenue figure is a moving target that most cross-storefront comparisons treat as static. Any deck citing "$23.5B" for Xbox without a date attached is already at least one fiscal year stale.

Cross-Storefront Comparison Traps

Four errors that show up in nearly every platform comparison table.
  1. Platform-wide vs. third-party. Comparing Steam's full platform total against Epic's full platform total flatters both owners' first-party hits (CS2/Dota 2 vs. Fortnite) and hides the real developer-facing gap.
  2. Player spending vs. corporate revenue. Sony and Microsoft's segment revenue bundles hardware, subscriptions, and first-party publishing; not a like-for-like comparison to what players spend on a pure storefront like Steam.
  3. Stale snapshots. Every figure in this part has a fiscal-year or calendar-year attached for a reason: Xbox's FY2025 number was already superseded by the time most competitive decks were built around it.
  4. Estimator scope. Every third-party estimate measures a different slice: paid-only, platform-wide, new-releases-only, or back-catalogue-included. The five Steam rulers in Section 01 are five different scopes, not five attempts at the same number.
I
The Framework
FTUE, commissions, UA economics
II
Premium Storefronts
Steam, Epic, PlayStation, Xbox
III
Mobile & Synthesis
App Store, Google Play, decision matrix

Abbas Saleem is a Principal Consultant at Llama & Griffin, advising game studios, streaming platforms, and investment funds across six continents. He writes Recognizing Patterns: gaming industry intelligence 12 to 24 months before it becomes consensus. LinkedIn | Book a conversation